The Coral Gables Regional

Adam Clarke (Follow on Twitter)

Vishnu Parasuraman (Follow on Twitter)

After a disappointing week in the ACC Tournament, the Canes were picked to host a regional. The other participants: (2) Texas Tech, (3) Columbia, and (4) Bethune-Cookman.

On the other side of this regional bracket is the #2 National Seed Florida Gators. While Miami will feel a bit slighted that they missed out on a national seed, it could easily be argued that the Gators received a tougher regional with (2) Long Beach State, (3) North Carolina, and (4) College of Charleston.

The winners of the Gainesville and Coral Gables regionals will meet next week. The Gators will host that super regional if they are still in the tournament, but if they fail, the Canes will be able to host that super regional (provided they, of course, survive).

There is a bit of other housekeeping. Freshman Brad Zunica has left the program and will be transferring. While he has struggled immensely this year, this is still a loss given Zunica’s size and that he filled in okay at times this year. He is a bat that the Canes would like to have in the postseason just in case.

The other note is that a minor finger injury is hampering Chris Diaz and might force him down the rotation. As is tradition, Jim Morris will throw his second starter Andrew Suarez on Friday, but the Game 2 starter is up in the air with Diaz’s issues. We might also see Bryan Radziewski in that spot, despite Morris’ assurances that Diaz is recovered.

For this preview, we will look at all 3 opponents, but the only known opponent is Bethune-Cookman on Friday. All games this weekend will be televised on ESPN3.

#2 Texas Tech

The biggest challenge to Miami this weekend will likely come from the Red Raiders. Texas Tech finished 4th in the Big XII with a 14-10 record, and were 40-18 overall. They went out from the Big XII tournament in 2 games, losing the opener to Texas 8-3, and then following that up with a loss to an awful Oklahoma team after blowing an 8-3 8th inning lead to lose 9-8. Of particular note is that Texas Tech did win 2 series against National Seeds, winning 3 of 4 against Indiana and 2 of 3 against TCU.

We don’t really know what strategy Texas Tech will employ with their pitching, or whether they will even play Miami, so it makes sense to look at their pitching staff. Their rotation is very unsettled. But they did give a hint, listing Chris Sadberry, their LHP with a 4-2 record, and 3.45 ERA as the starter for the Columbia game. That means Miami will likely not see him.

The other regular, full-time starter for Texas Tech is Dylan Dusek who is 6-0 with a 2.35 ERA. Other than that, the Red Raiders use a committee approach to starters, with Dominic Moreno (4-5, 3.17 ERA), Corey Taylor (5-3, 2.68 ERA), and Matt Withrow (3-3, 5.65 ERA) as the other starters with at least 6 starts. Several other pitchers have 3 starts.

Out of the bullpen, their best options are “closers” Jonny Drozd (3 saves, 6-0, 2.14 ERA) and Ryan Moseley (3 saves, 1-2, 3.86 ERA). Drozd is probably the best arm on the entire team, and is also capable of eating several innings if necessary.

At the plate, Texas Tech is dangerous. They lead the Big XII in batting average, slugging and are second in OBP, while slugger Eric Gutierrez lead the conference in HRs and RBI. Another player to watch out for his Tyler Nelsony, who hit .412 and has 31 RBI. Controlling Nelsony will be key, since he hits right in front of Gutierrez, and if Gutierrez is going to slug a home run, you want it to happen with no one on base.

Overall, Texas Tech is a strong team from a good conference. Their RPI numbers are very similar to Miami’s, and they have proven capable of beating national seed quality teams. All of those should be warning signs for the Canes if they end up having to face the Red Raiders. But Texas Tech is also appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade, and is not necessarily deep on the mound, so the Canes would certainly be favored against Texas Tech.

#3 Columbia

The Ivy League Champions made the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive year, finishing the year strong to set a school record with 29 wins. Much like Miami, the Lions had a strong second half of the season, winning 21 of their last 24 games, including 15 straight at one point. While they certainly picked up their play as the year went on, some of that success can likely be attributed to a change in competition – Columbia was 15-5 in Ivy League play, but 14-13 against all other opponents.

According to their athletics website, Columbia intends to hold back their ace David Speer for later in the tournament instead of their first game against Texas Tech. Speer, who went 7-2 this season with 6 complete games and a 1.86 ERA, was named the Ivy League pitcher of the year. With a fastball topping out in the mid-80s, Speer relies on his great control (75 Ks vs 7 walks in 87 innings) to keep opponents at bay. If the Canes and Lions meet in the winner’s bracket game, it will likely be a battle of aces.

At the plate, freshman Will Savage leads the team in average, and both he and Jordan Serena represent a major small-ball threat – they are a combined 39/45 on stolen base attempts. Gus Craig (6 home runs) and David Vandercrook (5) are the biggest power threats in the lineup, but they are not the only ones. Columbia actually has 20 home runs as a team, spread between 6 players.

#4 Bethune Cookman

Miami will face Bethune-Cookman in their first game of the Coral Gables regional, in what will serve as the third meeting between the two teams this year. Both games were in Coral Gables, and each team has won once – Bethune-Cookman upset the ‘Canes 7-3 in March, and the ‘Canes returned the favor a few weeks later with a 10-1 victory.

Bethune made the NCAA tournament as the champions of the MEAC Tournament, and as such enters as one of only three teams in the field of 64 with a losing record (26-31). That does not mean that Miami should discount them altogether. Bethune will send out their ace, Montana Durapau, who has already beaten Miami this year. Durapau, who has an 11-1 record and a 1.71 ERA, is more than capable of stifling the ‘Canes offense. He also tends to pitch deep into games, important for Bethune-Cookman because they lack any notable arms out of the bullpen. For the Tigers, it’s likely Durapau or bust against the ‘Canes.

Predictions

Adam’s Take

Despite the struggles last week in the ACC Tournament, I’m still confident in this ‘Canes team about getting out of this regional, especially when it was announced Monday who the ‘Canes would face. Texas Tech is a solid 2-seed, but most people expected Columbia to be a 4-seed (while the 4-seed in Florida’s bracket, College of Charleston, was expected by many to be a 3-seed). Meanwhile, Bethune-Cookman has an RPI of 202 and, as we mentioned above, is one of only 3 teams in the tournament with a losing record. Needless to say, the ‘Canes got a favorable draw.

While Miami did lose to Bethune-Cookman earlier this season, I look at it a bit differently because of the circumstances. That was the game that Javi Salas started one week after his perfect game… and promptly gave up 6 runs in the first inning en route to a 7-3 loss. The ‘Canes actually got to Durapau somewhat in that game, getting 3 runs on 9 hits, while the bullpen shut down BCC the rest of the night. Salas wasn’t even expecting to start that night, it was a last second switch by Morris, who thought the following day’s game would be rained out, and he didn’t want to miss Salas’ start. Miami is the better team here, they should beat Bethune-Cookman in the first game.

I will always like the ‘Canes chances in game 2 with Chris Diaz on the mound. Morris said this week that the finger injury that was nagging Diaz last week is recovered and that he’s ready to go. Diaz’s record this season speaks for itself, so even though either Texas Tech or Columbia would be throwing their ace here also, I expect the ‘Canes to get another victory and stay in the winner’s bracket.

From there, Miami would need just 1 more win, with 2 chances to get it. They would still have Bryan Radziewski and Javi Salas ready to go, and I find it hard to imagine them losing consecutive games against an opposing team’s 4th or 5th starter. It will be very important that the ‘Canes situational hitting returns to form after disappearing last week in the ACC tournament. With a few weeks back into his routine, hopefully David Thompson can provide some additional power in the lineup to complement the recent good form of Dale Carey and Zack Collins. I could see Miami dropping a game sometime this weekend, most likely from a poor showing at the plate, but I fully expect them to advance out of this regional. One step closer to Omaha.

Vishnu’s Take

Miami is certainly the favorite to get out of this regional, but the last time they hosted, they went 0-2 getting blown out twice. Bethune-Cookman is a known opponent. While Durapau is a good pitcher, I do like Miami to score some runs. And when BCC beat Miami earlier this year, it was with Miami throwing a midweek starter. Andrew Suarez hits the zone with some power, so I don’t think BCC will have much success scoring runs. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Suarez throws a complete game. The Canes win the opener.

I cannot believe that Columbia is holding back their ace, hoping to beat Texas Tech with a secondary starter. The Red Raiders can hit, so I think they beat Columbia setting up a winner’s bracket game between Texas Tech and Miami. I love Chris Diaz in that spot, and think Canes get enough runs to win that.

After that, the Canes still have B-Rad, and whoever emerges to play Miami will be on fumes in their pitching rotation. Canes win the 3rd game easily, go 3-0, and move on to the Super Regionals.