Adam Clarke (Follow on Twitter)
Vishnu Parasuraman (Follow on Twitter)
The ‘Canes picked up their second consecutive series win to start the year, taking 2 of 3 from the Gators over the weekend. Prior to the series, Miami had lost 13 of the last 14 meetings with Florida, at one point losing 11 straight. This series win could give Miami the confidence it needs moving forward through a tough 2014 schedule.
The week started on a low point, as the ‘Canes failed to get anything going offensively midweek to FAU, losing 5-2. A slew of errors (remember this, it will likely be a theme this season) put Miami behind early, and poor hitting meant the ‘Canes were never able to mount a serious comeback.
Things looked bleak early against Florida on Friday, as the ‘Canes quickly fell behind 3-0 in the first inning. But eventually Chris Diaz settled in and got some run support. Home runs from Dale Carey, Willie Abreu, and Garrett Kennedy gave Miami the lead, and Bryan Garcia shut the door with a six-out save, giving the ‘Canes a 6-4 win. On Saturday, Miami got steady pitching from Bryan Radziewski and more key hitting, including a huge 3-run home run from freshman Zack Collins (who was hitless through the first four games) on their way to a 5-2 victory.
Miami’s chances of a sweep took an immediate hit in the first inning on Sunday, as Andrew Suarez struggled and his infielders did him no favors en route to an early 4-0 deficit. The ‘Canes fought back and had the winning run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth, but could not pull through, falling 6-4.
Miami will leave Coral Gables for the first time this season, first for an exhibition game against the Marlins at their Spring Training facility in Jupiter, and then to Tallahassee for another series with an in-state rival, this time against the Seminoles.
@Florida State
Friday, 4 PM; Saturday, 2 PM; Sunday 1 PM
NOTE: Friday and Saturday’s games will be on ESPN3.
As we mentioned in our season preview, this matchup with Florida State will not count in the ACC standings for either team. Because of the ACC’s rotating schedule, these two rivals were not matched up this year, but the teams agreed to continue the annual tradition and play a non-conference series anyway. As a result, the ‘Canes will play their instate rivals in back-to-back weeks in what is likely the toughest opening schedule in the country.
Florida State comes into this game still undefeated, at 6-0 with a sweep of Niagara opening weekend, a midweek win over Jacksonville, and a sweep of a shortened series against Georgia. They enter this series with much fanfare, ranked 2nd in the nation by Baseball America, and with talent up and down their squad.
Much like the ‘Canes, Florida State relies on a strong, veteran pitching rotation to stifle opposing lineups. RHP Luke Weaver will get the start on Friday, LHP Brandon Leibrant on Saturday, and RHP Mike Compton on Sunday. All three have extensive experience as starters for FSU, but Compton is coming off Tommy John surgery, and might still be on a limited pitch count. The Seminoles have plenty of arms to turn to in the bullpen, including RHP Gage Smith and LHP Bryant Holtmann. RHP Jameis Winston, who you might have heard of, looks to be the closer for FSU in the early parts of this season.
Offensively, FSU returns about 60% of their total at-bats from last season’s powerful lineup. They have filled in these holes with a few talented freshmen and JUCO transfers, and so far this season have not missed a beat, averaging 10 runs a game (an admittedly poor sample size, but still) so far this year. DJ Stewart, Brett Knief, and Josh Delph are guys that we are singling out this week as major threats at the plate, though the entire FSU lineup will be a handful for the ‘Canes pitching staff. Last season, the Seminoles were not a huge threat on the bases, rarely attempting steals and succeeding at a below-average rate when they did. When you have the sort of power hitting lineup that FSU does, it’s not necessary to play small ball.
Predictions
Adam’s Take
The ‘Canes resurgence at the plate against Florida gave fans reason for hope, but just as quickly the reality set in that fielding remains a huge issue for Miami. Routinely booting the ball or throwing it over the head of the 1B is likely to give up at least an extra run or two per game, and the offense is not trustworthy enough to overcome that.
This is an elite FSU team, and in many ways it’s probably lucky that the ‘Canes avoid this series showing up on their ACC record later in the year when we look at seeding scenarios in the ACC Tournament. I think Miami has virtually no shot at a sweep, and an outside chance at a 2-1 series win. I see the ‘Canes picking up one win, probably from Radziewski, but losing the series in the rubber match.
Vishnu’s Take
The UF win was great. The Canes program needed that. There have been some lean years in Coral Gables (by Miami standards), and that win was cathartic.
But there are multiple issues that the Canes need to improve. The hitting is still inconsistent (UF’s pitching staff is not great) and the fielding is just bad. Now, the positives are that the Canes know they have great starting pitching (hats off to Andrew Suarez for getting shelled for 4 runs in the 1st inning on Sunday, then still going 7 innings only allowing 2 over the course of the next 6 innings, kind of went unnoticed since B-Rad and Diaz are clearly superior) and that a lot of the fielding and inconsistent hitting issues can be attributed to youth.
Florida State, however, might be the best team in the country. As the Canes freshmen get more experience, the pitching rotation gets solidified, and they really get going, I hope they grow into a team that can compete with the likes of FSU. But this early in the season, against a deep, veteran team is too much. The Sunday game is always interesting with a somewhat late start time and an early flight out for the Canes (due to lack of options), so the curfew often comes into play. In any event, I think FSU takes 2 of 3.
Sebastian's Pub 