Game 2: Toledo
Date/Time/Location: 9.23.2017, 15:30, Miami Gardens, FL
Television: RSN (affiliates)/ESPN3
Miami -14
Nothing to report.
Series History
These teams have played once before, all the way back in 1987. Miami won 24-14 in the Orange Bowl, just a few weeks before winning their second national championship.
Toledo Overview
Toledo is off to a hot start this season, with a high-scoring offense propelling them to a 3-0 record. Second year head coach Jason Candle, who was promoted from offensive coordinator when Matt Campbell left for Iowa State after 2015, is 13-4 since taking on the role. The Rockets came from behind to beat Tulsa last week, turning a 28-14 halftime deficit into a 54-51 victory.
It all starts with Senior QB Logan Woodside. Last season, Woodside threw for over 4100 yards and 45 TDs. He is off to a similar pace this season, with 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns through his first three games, including 6 against Tulsa. He has spread the ball around well, but Senior WR Cody Thompson is his clear favorite target – he leads the team in all receiving categories (22 catches, 391 yards, 4 TDs). Last season, Woodside had the added benefit of being able to hand off to Kareem Hunt, who is now making plays in the NFL. However, through three games the 1-2 punch of Terry Swanson and Art Thompkins on the ground has been productive for the Rockets.
On the flipside, this Toledo defense has some definite weaknesses, which Tulsa was able to exploit last week. The defensive front is experienced, but that did not prevent Tulsa from racking up 423 yards (and 6 TDs) to the tune of 6.2 yards per attempt. The pass defense has been fine. Toledo had no problem limiting FCS school Elon in week 1, and Tulsa didn’t need to throw much considering their success on the ground.
As far as Special Teams, Toledo’s kicker is 8/9 through the early part of the season, but has not connected on any kick longer than 33. It’s also worth noting that Diontae Johnson returned a kickoff for a touchdown in week 1.
What to Expect This Week
This game may get a lot of “upset alert” attention in the lead up to Saturday. There are some legitimate questions about how prepared Miami can be for this game after the unexpected extended layoff caused by Hurricane Irma. Combine that with a high-scoring Toledo team that was the media’s pre-season pick to win the MAC, and this game is ripe for the same type of analysis we saw leading up to App State last year.
On the field, however, Miami should be able to move the ball with relative ease. Mark Walton and Travis Homer should be able to put up big numbers against a relatively poor Toledo rushing defense, which will make life easier for Malik Rosier. One benefit of the two weeks off for Miami is that it gave Ahmmon Richards some additional team to recover his hamstring injury. Mark Richt said early in the week that he might be able to play.
Miami’s defense did not look as strong as expected against Bethune Cookman. It’s too early to know whether the Canes were playing mostly in base-defense against BCC’s spread by design or simply to keep their defense off of film for a bit longer. Either way, they will need to play better against Toledo, who will deploy a similar up-tempo spread attack, but with far more talent.
Predictions
CLARKE
This game is a bit unsettling to me now. While I still expect the Canes to ultimately prevail decisively, it may take them a quarter or two to find their rhythm. Toledo’s defense looked absolutely awful last week, and I expect the Canes might have another game with two 100+ yard rushers. The question for me is how the Miami defense plays. They were not happy with themselves after the BCC game after an offseason of heavy praise. This is a chance for them to justify all that Spring and Summer talk. Toledo hangs around until around halftime before the Canes pull away.
Miami 45, Toledo 21
THOMSON
Who knows what really to expect this Saturday? I was concerned about this game before the season because it was post-FSU, and I thought it would be closer than many fans would expect. Miami was not particularly sharp in its opener, but that was a month ago and against Bethune Cookman, so that performance can be taken with a grain of salt. So with the layoff, this is in a lot of ways like a season opener. Toledo will have some success early, Miami will eventually find its footing, and at the end of the day, Miami gets the win.
Miami 34, Toledo 21
PARASURAMAN
Toledo presents some interesting challenges for the Canes’ defense. This is probably a good game to have for a secondary that struggled in Week 1. It will test them against one of the nation’s leading passers. Normally, that would be a problem, but the Canes can score at will in this game, so hopefully the result itself won’t be in doubt. This also represents the Canes’ last chance to fine tune things before ACC play, just 6 days away. I expect the Canes to play much better than they did against BCC and to roll to a comfortable victory.
Miami 51, Toledo 13
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