Depth Chart courtesy of OurLads.
5 QUESTIONS ON THE 2021 MIAMI HURRICANES
Question 1: How worried are you about D’Eriq King’s knee injury?
Clarke: I am worried simply because I think the drop off from him to anyone else on the depth chart is so huge and because it seems like he is the lifeblood of this team. By all accounts, he has made a full recovery and is moving like normal in practice and scrimmages. But I cannot help but wonder if it will be in his head at all, especially in week 1 against Alabama. There is a strong likelihood that he takes a lot of hits in that game. Will he be a bit less decisive while scrambling to make a cut and dive for a first down? It’s possible. But overall, I trust in modern medicine — it’s not unheard of to see a recovery from that type of knee injury in 8 months..
Parasuraman: I’m not really worried it about unless we think the training staff is misleading us. Apparently he’s 100% and all signs from camp point to that being true. With that said, he is the only irreplaceable player on this roster and is probably worth 3-4 wins alone by himself, so if there is any residual problem, that could be a disaster. Also, his playing style requires him to have 100% confidence to be fully effective, so there is a mental aspect. Overall, not worried, but I could be wrong.
Thomson: Zero. Point. Zero. Is there a possibility he gets hurt again? Of course, but not because of his last injury but because of his playing style. There’s a strong possibility any of these guys get hurt, but there’s nothing to suggest he is rushing back too soon and subjecting himself to another injury here. I’m completely comfortable with him being full strength for Alabama and beyond. Truly a transcendent QB for Miami, and one that we’ve desperately needed for the last, oh, say 20 years. Thank you COVID (I guess?) for giving us another year of D’Eriq King.
Question 2: Manny Diaz named himself Defensive Coordinator? What are your thoughts on this?
Clarke: It probably had to be done. It’s what got him the job in the first place, and assigning those duties elsewhere was not particularly successful. If he had hired another defensive coordinator and the defense floundered, Diaz’s seat would likely get very warm, very quickly. So he might as well take that role himself. The “specialist” head coach is not uncommon in college football, and Diaz seems content to let Rhett Lashlee take the lead entirely on offense. Now the question is does have have the front 7 talent to implement that type of disruptive, turnover-generating defense that got him the job.
Parasuraman: I’m generally not a fan of this sort of thing and at the time, felt it was the wrong move. However, with the way they had to soft exit Blake Baker, I do believe that financial considerations played a major role in this decision making. Manny did manage to overhaul the entire defensive staff without having to fire anyone and incur heavy buyout penalties. You have to think given the way the offseason unfolded that there was no money for a mass firings and new hirings. This also puts him under the microscope as having to deliver. There’s no one else to blame if this goes wrong. So while not ideal, it is forcing an inflection point.
Thomson: Good… I guess? No disrespect intended but the last group had no business being the “decision makers” on this side of the ball. I get going with “your guys” but “your guys” should not be learning on the job at the University of Miami. Now when you look at the defensive side of the coaching staff, you see truly elite and established coaches with backgrounds of being developers of talent. Miami has been in desperate need of that. When you have that type of experienced coaching staff, I would imagine it makes it somewhat easier to call the plays even as the head coach. Not that there’s any true indication that is what is going to happen, it could be just “in name only” but I’m not worried about it regardless. In an ideal world, the head coach isn’t that much hands on to be the official defensive coordinator but watching the landscape, the best coaches have way more input than they let us in on anyway.
Question 3: What is your biggest concern on offense?
Clarke: Other than the aforementioned situation of seeing a backup QB, my biggest concern is establishing a consistent running attack. D’Eriq King was the Canes leading rusher in 5 of the 10 regular season games last year. This was largely due to an inability of the Offensive Line to generate holes for the Canes talented running backs. I think the return of Navaughn Donaldson and the addition of Jalen Rivers should help in this regard. But the Rhett Lashlee uptempo offense can only thrive when the running game is working well.
Parasuraman: Wide Receiver. I think the OL will be fine, especially with King behind it. I love the depth at RB. And while I trust Harley and like the addition of Charleston Rambo, we need these WRs to be difference makers. They haven’t even been able to consistently catch the ball in the past, but they need to take a step beyond that to really succeed and we haven’t seen that in a while. We remember the rare occasions when they stepped up and delivered, which shows how often that didn’t happen. If Harley, Rambo, and a 3rd Wide Receiver step up and become weapons, then that becomes a game changer for this offense and is how it goes to another level.
Thomson: For Alabama, the offensive line. For everyone else, the wide receivers. Alabama is just a different beast, and if Miami can’t block them or buy time, you may as well start a running clock. But overall, I’m comfortable with them locking up against most ACC squads. Thus, my concern turns to a WR unit that has been plagued with drops, under-developed recruits, and lack of game-breaking ability that you would expect to see from a program of Miami’s caliber. For Miami to take the next step, this unit has to be better. There is hope, though, as Charleston Rambo is definitely a guy that can take a small gain into a big touchdown, a key when you have a guy like D’Eriq King that can buy more time for plays to open up downfield. The youngers guys in the program have been producing (reportedly) in the off-season, which has led to the older guys feeling the pressure. The question now will be whether if those older (but talented) guys continue to struggle, the coaching staff moves on to the younger guys.
Question 4: What is your biggest concern on defense?
Clarke: I am most worried about the depth at defensive end. That position has been a point of strength for Miami for several years, most recently with Joe Jackson and Greg Rousseau in 2019, and Jaelen Phillips and Quincy Roche in 2020. This year, some talented young players (Chantz Williams, Jahfari Harvey) will get an opportunity to show their skills, but Miami will be relying heavily on a graduate transfer (Deandre Johnson) and a converted linebacker, Zach McCloud. We know Manny Diaz is willing to put his defensive backs on an island in man-to-man, relying on a pass rush to get to the quarterback. So if there are struggles at DE, it will have likely derail the Canes defensive strategy.
Parasuraman: Defensive line. Secondary is also a major concern, but I think that they will be good enough to get by. I’m more worried about our DL getting pushed around exposing our LBs. Maybe that is a bit of PTSD from last year’s UNC game but if the DL does not perform at a high level, the rest of the defense gets really exposed. I don’t necessarily need them to have all the impact of Roche and Phillips, but they need to hold their own and allow the rest of the defense to perform. And when you look at the talent loss and the depth, there are certainly concerns about whether they can do that. I’m also not sure if it’s a good thing that Zach McCloud is moving here. It’s fine to say that this is a good fit for him, but when you’re reaching like that it’s because you don’t trust your depth, so it’s a bad overall sign.
Thomson: The whole thing. The defensive line lost a lot of production, and by a lot, I mean A LOT OF PRODUCTION. I read a pre-season preview about Miami’s defensive line production that referenced how Miami has consistently (of late) churned out big time producers at the defensive line position, in regards to sacks and tackles for loss. And while that is true, this year’s defensive ends do not have the “bona fides” that prior groups had coming into the season. There is talent, of course, and we’ve seen in the past young talent explode on the scene, but the hope is that the interior of the defensive line, especially Nesta Silvera, can provide the experience necessary to get that production. A lot of similar questions about the the second level as well – and it’s hard to get the thoughts of the end of last year out of my head with how thoroughly Miami was dominated by North Carolina and Oklahoma State. The secondary is experienced and talented, but will need the front 6/7 to produce. I do expect big things from the secondary this year, but even all-world secondaries can only do so much if opposing quarterbacks are given time to throw (or running backs given highway lanes to run through).
Question 5: How does Miami win the ACC this year (yes, I said ACC, not ACC Coastal)?
Clarke: Firstly, they almost certainly will not. But if we allow ourselves to imagine, the success is likely predicated on a combination of things. First, D’Eriq King will have to not only be back and 100% healthy, but he’ll have to be better than he was last year. The Canes wide receivers will have needed to take a major step forward (or have been replaced by others who can catch the ball consistently), and Rhett Lashlee’s uptempo scheme thrives with a steady rotation of skill players and solid offensive line play. Defensively, the Canes defensive transfer players (Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson) bolster a solid unit and Manny Diaz’s aggressive play calls bring the turnover chain back to its 2017 glory. And finally, it will mean that something went horribly wrong for Clemson and probably North Carolina, too.
Parasuraman: This is obviously a long shot, but 3 people at ACC media days did vote for this to happen. It’ll take 2 things for this to happen. The first is D’Eriq King. He is an amazing player, and one of the best in the country. When he shows up, you have a chance. So it’s certainly possible he does that enough to win the ACC Coastal, and then it comes down to one game. About that one game, Clemson has been a machine. But they’ve lost a lot. It’s not easy, even for them, to continue to churn out elite teams. So I think it would be a combination of Clemson coming back to the pack a little and King elevating the Canes to another level. In the middle, they would meet and that’s where the Canes have a chance.
Thomson: Rather simple- King wins, or is a finalist for, the Heisman Trophy and the defense performs at a level that produces turnovers and short fields on a routine basis. It’s a very tall ask because it will involve Miami beating all the teams on the schedule they are “supposed” to beat- a phenomenon that has not happened in 20 years now. I actually do expect D’Eriq King to produce enough to be in the Heisman discussion, assuming the Canes march into the last month of the season with only one loss. But to do that, Miami is going to have to do two things it has not done in the last 15 years in the same season: beat the teams that you are supposed to beat *AND* win a big time football game. It is feasible for Miami to beat North Carolina in October and control their destiny in the ACC Coastal. The true test will be that *if* Miami beats North Carolina, can they also beat everyone else on the schedule – teams they will be favored to beat? Assuming all of that happens, then Miami should have a lot of confidence going into the Clemson game, and having the experience that they would have already played Alabama in the beginning of the year as a true measuring stick. Stranger things have happened I suppose.
Note: Images in this section courtesy of HurricaneSports.com and Google.
Game by Game Analysis
Graphic courtesy the ACC.
CLARKE
Most Anticipated Game
This is entirely for selfish reasons. I imagine the fanbase might be a bit deflated for this game after what is likely to be a big loss to Alabama. But I am just excited to be back at a Canes home game after almost two years. The pandemic is obviously not over, but being fully vaccinated and with the game being outside, I feel comfortable enough to go back and cheer on the Canes after having a few drinks at a tailgate. That aside, this is probably game 1 on what we hope will be the Canes clawing their way back into the national picture. It’s against a solid team, so this should be a good challenge, but one in which the Canes should prevail.
Least Anticipated Game
For some reason, I can see this being a tricky game for the Canes. Fortunately, it shouldn’t be too cold up in Pitt by this time of the season. Nonetheless, this game has a tendency to be close and uncomfortable for Miami. But above all else, it just seems boring.
PARASURAMAN
Most Anticipated Game
Are we going to Lose? Yes, probably. But so what? It’s Alabama. This is going to be a lot of fun. With an entire offseason to prepare, I’m hoping the Canes put their best foot forward and really play a strong game. They won’t win, but how can you not love Miami-Alabama to start things off? I also considered the revenge game against UNC, but come on, Ala-freeking-Bama!
Least Anticipated Game
Duke is awful, it’s the last game, on the road. I can’t get up for this game at all. The only redeeming quality here is that it is the last game, so nostalgia for a season gone is always an element. But the previous 2 games being rivalry games (FSU and VT) leads to this being even worse. This feels like a play out the string game, although hopefully it’s a warm up for the ACC Championship Game.
THOMSON
Most Anticipated Game
North Carolina, assuming we don’t wet the bed after Alabama. My expectation and hope is that we come into this game with only one loss. If that is the case, this game very likely decides the ACC Coastal winner. Should be a great game that defines the season for Miami. After last year, Miami should be well aware what can happen if they do not show up ready to play. That being said, North Carolina lost quite a bit of talent themselves, though the argument can certainly be made that having one of the best quarterbacks in college football makes that talent look a lot better. North Carolina continues to recruit at a high level under Mack Brown, so this one should be a fun game to watch assuming that Miami plays better than we did against them last year.
Least Anticipated Game
Appalachian State. First off, they’re a pretty solid team that is going to be “up” for this one in ways that Miami will not. Second, this is more about the positioning on the schedule than anything. No matter what happens against Alabama, playing one week later against a team that has you circled for months is always difficult. Appalachian State gets the benefit of a few extra days to prepare for Miami after opening their season on Thursday night against East Carolina. Offensively, Appalachian State will be breaking in a new quarterback, but they return their three leading rushers as well as the entirety of the receiving group. There will be some new faces on the offensive line, but they’re still plenty experienced. Defensively, just about everyone of importance returns, including 10 starters while gaining some key transfers from larger programs. Miami better circle this game just like Alabama, or else…
ACC PROJECTED FINISH
Courtesy the ACC.
EXPECTED WINS VALUE
Every season, we do an expected wins calculation. The concept is simple. Each of us will rate the percentage chance we believe Miami has of winning each game. Using those numbers, we calculate how many wins we think the Canes will have.
SEASON PREDICTIONS
The last section was math, this is strictly opinion.
CLARKE
I am slightly pessimistic on this team, at least relative to some of the expectations I have seen from fans. I am not sure that this is a better team than last year, which got absolutely blasted by teams that were any good. This year, once again, the Canes will almost certainly take a loss to a perennial playoff team, and then have a chance to recover their season and get to an ACC championship game. The major hurdle is likely North Carolina, but games against NC State and Virginia Tech could also prove difficult. And Miami is not yet above dropping a game to an otherwise bad ACC team, like Florida State. Unfortunately, I think this is a largely unsatisfying season. I see a 9-3 finish, with losses to Alabama, North Carolina, and NC State. That would leave the Canes out of the ACC Championship game, but probably not be a bad enough season (in the administration’s eyes) to incur a major change in the coaching staff.
PARASURAMAN
I might be delusional, but I’m optimistic for this season. A senior QB, one of the best in the country, is cause for optimism to begin with. I see all this UNC hype and do wonder how much of that is because we wet the bed against them last year. The only game I have zero confidence in is Bama, because they are a different animal and because it’s so soon in the season. By the time we get to UNC, we’ll be humming. Now, this could go very wrong. What if Diaz’s defense doesn’t work? What if the frailties on the DL lead to a meltdown? What if King is not 100% healthy? What if Bama takes the wind out of our sails? I could actually write this in such a way that the Canes realistically win 6-7 games. But I could also see 11 wins. If you look at the percentages, it did add up to 8-9 wins, but I also think we’re favorites in every game other than Bama, including UNC. All told, we’ll drop another, non-Bama game, but I think 10-2 and that is enough to win the ACC Coastal and get a shot at Clemson, where we come up just short and finish 10-3 and runner ups in the ACC.
THOMSON
Welcome back to college football season! Unfortunately, I just do not have a great feeling about this year. I hope that these are words that I eat by December, but I am probably going to be the pessimistic one this year from our group. Perhaps a contradiction, but I do believe that Miami will play Alabama tough (before ultimately losing) which could give a bit of false confidence. Miami has not resopnded well to losses in about a decade, and with Appalachian State next, I would not be surprised to see a close win or even a loss, which of course could send the season spiraling. Regardless, my concern is that North Carolina is just a lot better at coaching and player development than Miami, as they showed on the field last year, and that Miami seemingly suffers from an inability to play “up” on a consistent basis. Miami is not good enough and has not been good enough for so long to treat teams as inferior, yet it appears that is the Miami “culture” of the past 10 years. Miami squeaked by “bad teams” a year ago in Pittsburgh, Virginia and Virginia Tech before being blasted by North Carolina, and really Oklahoma State before N’Kosi Perry played valiantly in his last game as a Hurricane. Miami lost to FIU, Duke and Louisiana Tech two years ago. Four straight losses in 2018 to Virginia, Boston College, Duke and Georgia Tech. Throw in the fact that Miami has not beaten a team with a pulse since 2017 Notre Dame and I find it somewhat perplexing that Miami is considered a sleeper ACC favorite. At some point, you are what you are So here we go: I do not believe we will beat Alabama or North Carolina. Appalachian State is the third best team on the schedule, and I would not be surprised if we lost that game. I believe there is another ACC game out there that we drop. Based on recent history, I would say North Carolina State (the game after UNC), but it could very well be Florida State or Virginia Tech. My official prediction here would be 9-3 but I’m closer to picking 8-4 than I am 10-2. That being said, D’Eriq King is one of the true difference makers in college football and he alone could vault that 8-4 to 10-2 (or better) alone. Here’s hoping.
VEGAS PREDICTIONS
ACC ODDS – TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP
ACC OVER/UNDER WINS BY TEAM
SEBASTIAN’S PUB’S ACC PREDICTIONS
CLARKE
It’s boring and chalk, but picking anyone other than Clemson on the Atlantic side is a fool’s errand. They may take a minor step back without Trevor Lawrence, but they have another 5-star QB ready to take his place, of course. The Coastal side is obviously a more interesting proposition. UNC is getting a lot of preseason buzz, and deservedly so with one of the nation’s best QB prospects in Sam Howell. While the two running backs that gave UM fits last year have moved onto the NFL, I suspect they will still have a strong offense. If they improve a bit defensively, there’s an outside chance they could give Clemson a legitimate challenge for the first time in 5 years. But I would not count on it — Clemson will likely continue its dominance of the ACC.
PARASURAMAN
Gave this away earlier, but I think UNC is vastly overrated. I also don’t think Clemson is nearly as good. I think we’ll see a much more muddled ACC. With that said, it’s hard to see anyone challenging Clemson in the Atlantic, or overall. North Carolina State is the only one with any chance, but they’re schedule is really tough with Miami and UNC as the cross-over games. But I do the Coastal is a little more open than people think. There a lot of expectations for “chalk” in a division that never has chalk results. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone random comes out of the Coastal. With that said, the reason I think it will be the Canes is I don’t think UNC’s defense gets any better, and it was bad last year. They’ve also lost key players offensively. So the question to me is does Manny Diaz make a difference defensively for the Canes? I think he does. So I think Miami improves this year and UNC is kind of static, meaning I think the Canes win the Coastal. And I actually think they can give Clemson a game. But I don’t think they’ll win it. So Clemson beats Miami in the ACC Championship Game.
THOMSON
Clemson is a no-brainer on the Atlantic side. While Clemson may need to replace quite a bit, the reality is that even if they did not, the rest of the division is just not that great. North Carolina State is probably the second best team on paper with what they return, but the Wolfpack have road games against Miami and Florida State, and must also play North Carolina at home to end their season. Clemson avoids both Miami and North Carolina from the Coastal, and gets Louisville and FSU at home. As such, even if Clemson were to drop an ACC game somewhere, they should still win the division. From the Coastal, it’s rather clear that I don’t think Miami is going to get there this year, which means North Carolina is the default pick. Similar to Clemson, part of this belief lies with the schedule. North Carolina gets extra time to prepare for Virginia Tech, and then eases into the schedule before getting Florida State at home the weekend before Miami. That game will also be at home for North Carolina. Ultimately, I do not see anyone beating Clemson, but North Carolina returns a lot defensively to give them an opportunity to do so.
Sebastian's Pub 